From: David Prosser <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Thu, 7 Jun 2012 16:31:56 +0100

This survey reminds me of one carried out by Chris Beckett and Simon
Inger back in 2007.  Both were surveys of libraries carried out on
behalf of publisher associations, both appeared to suggest that
six-month embargoes would trigger massive rounds of cancellations, and
both took no account of what actually happens in reality.

There are a growing number of journals that already make their content
freely available after six months.  These journals make the content
available ether through their own websites, through others (such as
PubMedCentral), or both.  Some of them have been doing so since well
before the Beckett and Inger study so we potentially have six years of
data to test the hypothesis that a six-month embargo could lead to
subscription losses in the order of 44%.  We also have extensive
experience in some fields of what happens to subscriptions if
peer-reviewed copies are made available immediately on publication.

As far as I know, there is no evidence to suggest that six months
embargoes have led to 44% reductions in subscriptions as predicted by
this latest survey.  The journals that make their content available
after six months appear to be thriving and are sustainable.  If I have
missed the evidence please let me know.

So, what do you do if you discover that your survey results do not
necessarily reflect reality?  Well, I guess that if the results match
your ideological bent you ignore the discrepancy and issue press
releases.  If you are interested in actually looking at behaviour you
try to dig a little deeper.  One can begin to think of a number of
possible reasons for this discrepancy, including:

1. Librarians don't realise that the material is available six months
after publication (unlikely, surely)
2. The journals that make material available tend to be in biomedical
fields - perhaps these areas are less susceptible to cancelations.
But it doesn't explain high-energy physics and economics where green
OA copies of all papers in some journals can be found without embargo.
3. People don't always do what they say they do in surveys.

The trouble is that in the cases where six month embargoes have been
tried they give results that completely fail to match the results of
the survey.  Until we come to terms with why this is the case I find
it hard to see how we can take the survey at face value.

Best wishes

David




On 4 Jun 2012, at 00:44, LIBLICENSE wrote:

> From: Kelly Signorelli-Chaplin <[log in to unmask]>
> Date: Fri, 1 Jun 2012 16:21:48 +0100
>
> The Publishers Association releases report detailing the potential
> effect of making journals free after a six month embargo
>
> --- Report suggests that libraries would cancel 65% of AHSS[1] and 44%
> of STM[2] journal subscriptions ---
>
> --- Libraries and Publishers need to work towards a mutually
> attractive publishing model ---
>
> -- The Publishers Association argues for ‘Gold’ Model of Open Access –
>
> London, 1 June 2012 – ‘The potential effect of making journals free
> after a six month embargo[3]’, a report commissioned by The Publishers
> Association and the Association of Learned, Professional and Society
> Publishers [ALPSP], found that an across-the-board mandate might have
> a material effect on libraries’ subscriptions; and that the impact on
> publishers’ revenues would be considerable. Higher Education
> Institutions’ libraries may be impacted by the collapse or scaling
> down of academic publishing houses. The world’s most distinguished
> research institutions would, the report suggests, be impacted the
> most, since published outputs are essential for the work carried out
> by their researchers. The reports’ results indicate that STM
> publishers could expect to retain full subscriptions from 56% of
> libraries, compared with 35% for AHSS publishers.
>
> Commenting on the findings of the report, Graham Taylor, Director of
> Educational, Academic and Professional Publishing at The Publishers
> Association, said: “We need a sustainable publishing model which is
> mutually attractive for both publishers and libraries. The findings of
> the report are testament to the fact that a six month embargo period
> is too short for the ‘green’ model of open access. The Publishers
> Association is in full support of a funded version of open access as
> we hope will be recommended by the report of the Finch Committee,
> which is expected to be published shortly”.
>
> Audrey McCulloch, Chief Executive of The Association of Learned,
> Professional and Society Publishers, said: “ALPSP is very concerned
> about the effect this may have on non-profit publishers, many of whom
> may not survive.  The responses in the report show that the ‘green’
> model of open access will reduce the number of journals and thus
> choice available to academics.   Learned societies rely on income from
> their publishing activities - how will this affect them and the
> services they provide?  ALPSP will only support appropriately funded
> publishing models, such as the current subscription model or the
> ‘gold’ open access model”.
>
> The report documents the results of a survey carried out to obtain a
> significant body of information on how the acquisitions policies of
> libraries might be affected by an across-the-board mandate to make
> journals articles free of charge six months after publication. The
> report analyses the results of responses from 210 libraries across the
> world who were asked whether they would continue to subscribe to
> research journals were their content freely available within six
> months of publication. Libraries were asked to send separate responses
> for Scientific, Technical and Medical (STM) journals and Arts,
> Humanities and Social Sciences journals (AHSS).
>
> Notes to Editors
>
> The Publishers Association
>
> The Publishers Association is the leading trade organisation serving
> book, journal, audio and electronic publishers in the UK. Membership
> is comprised of 117 companies from across the trade, academic and
> education sectors.  Its core service is representation and lobbying,
> around copyright, rights and other matters relevant to members, who
> represent roughly 80% of the industry by turnover.
> www.publishers.org.uk
>
> The Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers (ALPSP)
>
> The Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers (ALPSP)
> is the international organization for non-profit publishers. It has a
> broad and diverse membership of over 300 organizations in 37 countries
> who collectively publish over half of the world’s total active
> journals as well as books, databases and other products. ALPSP's
> mission is to connect, train and inform the scholarly and professional
> publishing community and to play an active part in shaping the future
> of academic and scholarly communication.
>
> www.alpsp.org
>
> #                       #                        #
> ________________________________
>
> [1] Arts, Humanities and Social Sciences
>
> [2] Scientific, Technical and Medical
>
> [3] The report has been prepared by Linda Bennett of Gold Leaf