From: Peter Binfield <[log in to unmask]> Date: Thu, 9 Feb 2012 09:53:29 -0800 >Can Heather (or anyone) provide a figure of (immediate) OA articles as a percentage of all articles in each recent year? It is possible that Exane Paribus's figures originally came from http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0020961 (Laakso et al). That article reports that in the period 2000 - 2009, OA content has grown by approx. 30% per year and that in 2009 OA content represented 7.7% of all content. They then calculated the figures with respect to the overall corpus of journal articles - see for example Figure 4 (this is a single year calculation). Someone who has taken these data and extrapolated them more sensibly than Exane Paribus seems to have done is David Lewis in: http://crl.acrl.org/content/early/2011/09/21/crl-299.full.pdf+html. His Figure 1 / Table 1 is probably what Exane Paribus did, but he argues that this is not the right way to look at these data. The more interesting figure is Figure 3 in which he predicts that 50% of all journal content will be OA sometime between 2017 and 2021. It is worth noting that these projections were based on data that were good only up to 2009, and so don't even take into account the recent OA Megajournal phenomena. It is commonly stated that in all of academia there are approx. 1.5 million articles published per year. PLoS ONE itself grew from publishing 6,700 articles in 2010 to almost 14,000 in 2011. If PLoS ONE were the only Open Access publisher in existence (which it is not) then it would have grown from 0.4% of the entire literature to 0.9% of the entire literature. It is worth noting that both Hindawi and BioMedCentral publish roughly the same number of articles as PLoS ONE (to within a factor of 2) and they are growing at roughly the same rate. And of course, the OA world is far more than simply Hindawi, BMC and PLoS ONE. Pete Peter Binfield, PhD Publisher, PLoS ONE 1160 Battery Street, Suite 100 San Francisco, CA 94111, USA mail: [log in to unmask] -----Original Message----- From: LibLicense-L Discussion Forum [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of LIBLICENSE Sent: Wednesday, February 08, 2012 6:39 PM To: [log in to unmask] Subject: Re: Elsevier Futures: Exane Paribus - OA growth rate correction From: Sally Morris <[log in to unmask]> Date: Wed, 8 Feb 2012 10:06:39 +0000 Can Heather (or anyone) provide a figure of (immediate) OA articles as a percentage of all articles in each recent year? That's what we need to look at to see whether, as Sami states, it is indeed growing at just 1% p.a. Sally Sally Morris South House, The Street, Clapham, Worthing, West Sussex, UK BN13 3UU Tel: +44 (0)1903 871286 Email: [log in to unmask]