From: Ken Masters <[log in to unmask]> Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:31:39 +0400 Hi All You've probably see the info in the paper by Laakso and Björk on the rise of OA: http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1741-7015-10-124.pdf I think the most telling things is not merely the current growth, but the shape of that light blue line on page 5 (online-only journals with article processing charges). Predictions are dangerous, but it's showing the classic shape of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations, and appears to be on the verge of, or already within, his Take-Off stage, which would mean an explosion within the next few years. This is spite of the forebodings that we've been hearing about an unsustainable business model etc. Contrasted with the green line (subscription based print journals with open access content) which shows a drop - although I am aware that one point on a graph does not equal a trend. Brings to mind a quote I heard this week - Martin Luther King said 'I have a dream' – he didn't say 'I have a business plan' Regards Ken Dr. Ken Masters Asst. Professor: Medical Informatics Medical Education Unit College of Medicine & Health Sciences Sultan Qaboos University Sultanate of Oman E-i-C: The Internet Journal of Medical Education