The executive summary is that we estimate the total scholarly journals market to be worth around $11bn, growing at around 2.3% per year. (As we have previously noted, this translates to a mild decrease in growth in real terms.)

As we discussed above, any estimates about our market are approximations, as there is an absence of clean and consistent data about the make-up of the market. In running any analysis like this, the method is ultimately driven by practicalities, and analyzing data requires qualitative judgements.

It is too early to run our full analysis and survey for 2023, so 2023’s figure is a projection at this point. It is based on indications of sentiment from our previous publisher survey. We will be sending out the latest survey to the usual participants soon, and we will update our estimates later this year once we have had a chance to gather and analyze the data. When we run our update, it will be interesting to see the effects of the recent retractions and the slow-down in output of the major OA publishers.