From: Peter Binfield <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Thu, 9 Feb 2012 09:53:29 -0800
>Can Heather (or anyone) provide a figure of (immediate) OA articles as a percentage of all articles in each recent year?
It is possible that Exane Paribus's figures originally came from
http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0020961
(Laakso et al). That article reports that in the period 2000 - 2009,
OA content has grown by approx. 30% per year and that in 2009 OA
content represented 7.7% of all content. They then calculated the
figures with respect to the overall corpus of journal articles - see
for example Figure 4 (this is a single year calculation).
Someone who has taken these data and extrapolated them more sensibly
than Exane Paribus seems to have done is David Lewis in:
http://crl.acrl.org/content/early/2011/09/21/crl-299.full.pdf+html.
His Figure 1 / Table 1 is probably what Exane Paribus did, but he
argues that this is not the right way to look at these data. The more
interesting figure is Figure 3 in which he predicts that 50% of all
journal content will be OA sometime between 2017 and 2021. It is worth
noting that these projections were based on data that were good only
up to 2009, and so don't even take into account the recent OA
Megajournal phenomena.
It is commonly stated that in all of academia there are approx. 1.5
million articles published per year. PLoS ONE itself grew from
publishing 6,700 articles in 2010 to almost 14,000 in 2011. If PLoS
ONE were the only Open Access publisher in existence (which it is not)
then it would have grown from 0.4% of the entire literature to 0.9% of
the entire literature. It is worth noting that both Hindawi and
BioMedCentral publish roughly the same number of articles as PLoS ONE
(to within a factor of 2) and they are growing at roughly the same
rate. And of course, the OA world is far more than simply Hindawi, BMC
and PLoS ONE.
Pete
Peter Binfield, PhD
Publisher, PLoS ONE
1160 Battery Street, Suite 100
San Francisco, CA 94111, USA
mail: [log in to unmask]
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Sent: Wednesday, February 08, 2012 6:39 PM
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Subject: Re: Elsevier Futures: Exane Paribus - OA growth rate correction
From: Sally Morris <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Wed, 8 Feb 2012 10:06:39 +0000
Can Heather (or anyone) provide a figure of (immediate) OA articles as
a percentage of all articles in each recent year? That's what we need
to look at to see whether, as Sami states, it is indeed growing at
just 1% p.a.
Sally
Sally Morris
South House, The Street, Clapham, Worthing, West Sussex, UK BN13 3UU
Tel: +44 (0)1903 871286
Email: [log in to unmask]
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