From: Ken Masters <[log in to unmask]>
Date: Wed, 24 Oct 2012 11:31:39 +0400

Hi All

You've probably see the info in the paper by  Laakso and Björk on the
rise of OA:

http://www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1741-7015-10-124.pdf

I think the most telling things is not merely the current growth, but
the shape of that light blue line on page 5 (online-only journals with
article processing charges).  Predictions are dangerous, but it's
showing the classic shape of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovations, and
appears to be on the verge of, or already within, his Take-Off stage,
which would mean an explosion within the next few years.

This is spite of the forebodings that we've been hearing about an
unsustainable business model etc.

Contrasted with the green line (subscription based print journals with
open access content) which shows a drop  - although I am aware that
one point on a graph does not equal a trend.

Brings to mind a quote I heard this week - Martin Luther King said 'I
have a dream' – he didn't say 'I have a business plan'

Regards

Ken

Dr. Ken Masters
Asst. Professor: Medical Informatics
Medical Education Unit
College of Medicine & Health Sciences
Sultan Qaboos University
Sultanate of Oman
E-i-C: The Internet Journal of Medical Education